Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
